Some random ramblings on the Karnataka situation.
The situation appeared grim for
the BJP, right from the start.
Before the Floor Test took place in the Karnataka Assembly at 4 pm yesterday, the following were possible scenarios I had shared with my Readings Broadcast List on WhatsApp.
(1) The BJP might just scrape through with a little help from some
Congress Lingayat MLAs for two reasons:
a. their unhappiness with the possibility of a Vokkaliga CM (H. D.
Kumaraswamy is a Vokkaliga) and
b. B. S. Yeddyurappa (BSY) is a Lingayat.
(2) Also, the Congress and JD (S) MLAs know that even if BSY lost
the trust vote, the BJP won’t keep quiet. Over the next few weeks, the party
will try to engineer defections in the INC and JD (S) – thus turning the numbers in the BJP’s favour.
(3) The fence-sitting INC and JD (S) MLAs also know that if they go
out of power (forming the government now and losing the majority later), they may just lose the chance to make money (that is why they are in politics, aren’t they?) and stay relevant.
(4) If
the BJP would engineer defections, it would be for today and 2019. The Karnataka battle will bruise the BJP in the short term but will pay rich
dividends in 2019. Remember, all politics is local.
(5) However,
despite all this and more, the BJP may just lose the Floor Test.
(6) BSY might
resign before the Floor Test. I shared this message ten minutes before the proceedings
started.
As it is, BSY resigned as the BJP
could not muster support from the rival parties.
Following the resignation, the
INC and its media friends went to town with grand statements that the Constitution
has been saved, that democracy has won, and that there is widespread disenchantment
with the BJP for its policies of demonetisation and the GST.
Let’s look at the tripe of ‘the
Constitution has been saved’. In inviting the single largest party to form government,
the Governor strictly went by the law (as laid down by the Supreme Court). If
the INC and JD (S) had a pre-poll alliance, the Governor would have invited the
alliance.
The Congress says that the BJP
was rejected in Karnataka. Only arrogant folks will mouth such laughable
statements, especially after the Congress went down from 122 seats to 78 seats
while its arch-rival raised its tally from 40 to 104. The Congress’ humiliation
cake had an icing: the chief minister Siddaramaiah lost from one of the two
seats he contested.
Consider the dumb idea of ‘democracy
has won’. It beats reason when a party with just 38 seats is extended support
by a party with 78 seats – the post-poll alliance between the JD (S) and the INC
has only one objective: keep the BJP out. The post-poll alliance between the
INC and the JD (S) is a marriage of convenience and as with all such marriages,
it won’t go far. Too many inflated egos and contesting vote-banks will scupper
any chance of a full-term for the alliance.
In the end, I think the biggest
loser in the Karnataka saga is the Congress party and the biggest winner is
the BJP. The BJP might have lost the Floor Test but in the eyes of the voter in
the street, it came across as a victim of the post-poll alliance between opportunistic
parties.
One more thing: the noise over
the Federal Front and the rejuvenation of the INC is all humbug.
In the Federal Front, super large
egos, of regional leaders like KCR, Mamata Banerjee and Chandrababu Naidu, will
force them to behave like crabs.
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