Trump is Right (No Pun Here)

I am with Donald Trump on the Ukraine issue.

The West cannot win this war. Europe is an ailing military power. The EU is high on rabble and low on military power, not withstanding the exalted claims of the UK, France (both nuke powers), and Germany. The Ukraine conflict has laid bare the military vulnerability of the EU: no large arsenals and certainly none of the much-vaunted tide-turning cutting edge technology on display.

The EU, especially the larger economies of the UK, France, and Germany, in an economic shithole. They are nothing more than glorified Middle Powers, like Iran, albeit with better technology and clout. But that's about it.

The EU cannot win the war in Ukraine against the Russians. Putin may be alone, but he sure weighs heavily on the minds of the liberal establishments in most of the EU nations.

The biggest threat the world faces, which the Russophobic-EU ignores, is the rise of a militaristic China.

China represents the single biggest threat to the U.S., India, the EU, and most of the southeast Asian nations.

If the U.S. gets out of the Ukraine quagmire, it can focus on countering China, which today is hellbent on owning not just the South China Sea but the Pacific Ocean as well.

Compared with the military threat from China, Russia is small change. The sooner the Russophobic-West, especially the EU, realizes this uncomfortable truth, the better will the chances of the anti-China brigade, including the U.S. and India, in countering the rising dangers of an aggressive and militaristic China.

The MbS Phenomenon

 

In this Explainer, I will focus on the ambitious Mohammed Bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. MbS, as he is usually referred to, has, in a very short time, come to dominate the tangled political landscape of West Asia (I prefer this term to the usual Middle East).

An aside on the name: In Saudi society (and generally in the Arabian Peninsula), a man’s name includes the name of his father (pretty much like in large parts of India). Bin means ‘son of’; so, Mohammed bin Salman means son of Salman.

Also, in this article you would find ‘Mohammed’ spelt in two different ways; I have taken the Saudi government accepted spellings of the names of the leaders.  

Who is Mohammed bin Salman?

Mohammed bin Salman is the Crown Prince of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. As the Crown Prince, he is next in line to succeed his father and King, Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. (Understanding the name of the King: Salman, son of Abdulaziz; Al Saud is the name of the ruling house/dynasty.)

Virtually unknown in the corridors of power before his meteoric rise, MbS was appointed the Crown Prince in June 2017. Soon after his father became the King, MbS was appointed the Deputy Crown Prince; his cousin and the son of King Salman’s brother Mohammad bin Nayef, was forcibly relieved of his office by MbS.  

Today he is also the kingdom’s Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Defence, Chairman of the Council for Economic and Development Affairs, and Chairman of the Council of Political and Security Affairs.

MbS is the most powerful person in today’s Saudi Arabia. The King, his father, trusts him blindly and has stood by him even as the calls for the Crown Prince’s removal for his involvement in the botched Yemen War and the Jamal Khashoggi murder saga grow louder.

MbS is seen as an ardent reformer by his supporters, while his detractors describe him as megalomaniacal and impetuous. His supporters point to the several reforms he has ushered in the deeply conservative country: lifting the ban on women drivers, allowing cinemas and music concerts, and introducing a spate of economic reforms.

MbS’ detractors, and there are many, cite his campaign in Yemen and the ill-planned embargo against Qatar as examples of his whimsical behaviour.

They also describe him as power-hungry who cannot tolerate dissent; the jailing of thousands of political dissidents, including women activists is a case in point. It is interesting to know here that the women activists were jailed for demanding driving rights for women. Ironically, MbS lifted the ban on women drivers and yet the women activists were jailed for calling for the same reform! Now, you may find this behaviour difficult to decipher. Well, it is easy if you understand the purport of MbS’ game plan: you cannot demand rights and get them; you will get rights ONLY if the King or the Crown Prince decide to give you rights – in other words, so it is the top-down approach that’s at work here.  

Another example is his treatment of the Prime Minister of Lebanon, Saad Hariri. When Hariri arrived in the Kingdom to meet King Salman, he was bundled to an unknown location; there was a complete blackout of the news concerning Hariri, a leader of a sovereign nation. One week later, Hariri was forced to tender his resignation from the prime minister’s post of his country from the soil of a foreign nation.

A Luxury Prison
The incident that shook the ground beneath the feet of elite Saudis took place in November 2017. Around 200 prominent Saudis, including the former Crown Prince Muhammad bin Nayef and Bakr bin Laden, the head of Saudi Binladin Group (a construction giant), were rounded up and detained for several months at the Ritz-Carlton Palace Hotel on the orders of MbS. The entire operation was described as a campaign against corruption and embezzlement; the detained were accused of enriching themselves at the cost of the Saudi State. It is believed that a few of those detained were tortured and forced into giving up their wealth. Bakr bin Laden and his two brothers were forced to transfer their 36 per cent shareholding in Saudi Binladin Group to a state-controlled company, overseen by MbS.    

The Jamal Khashoggi Saga
Jamal Khashoggi was a Saudi Arabian journalist and an insider in the Saudi royal court. He fled to the U.S after running afoul of the current royal administration in Saudi Arabia. A vociferous critic of the Saudi Arabian royal house, especially the Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, he was a columnist for the Washington Post newspaper and head of an Arab news channel. MbS had accused Khashoggi of working with the Kingdom’s rivals like Iran and Qatar.

On 2 October 2018, he visited the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul to collect documents pertaining to the dissolution of his marriage to a Saudi Arabian woman; the documents were necessary for him to get married to his Turkish fiancée. He was murdered inside the consulate by Saudi Arabian intelligence officials. Till date, no trace of his body has been found.

The murder of Jamal Khashoggi has since thrown West Asia into turmoil. The Khashoggi saga has embroiled Saudi Arabia and Turkey in a war of words, with the U.S. squeezed between its two important allies. The following are the major players in the Khashoggi saga: Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United States, Iran, Qatar, and the Muslim Brotherhood.

Erdogan's Wicked Glee
Turkey directly implicated Saudi Arabia of carrying out the murder on its soil, even pointing a finger at MbS for his involvement. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed the possession of unimpeachable evidence of the involvement of the Saudi Crown Prince, suggesting that the order for the murder “came from the highest authorities in the Saudi administration”.

Why did the Turkish President get so worked up about the murder of a Saudi dissident? The answer to this seemingly distasteful question lies in the ‘great power’ ambitions of the two countries.

We know that Saudi Arabia is the de facto leader of the Muslim World; however, Turkey, under Erdogan, wants to become the centre of the Muslim World, just like the Ottoman empire was before its eventual collapse in 1922. Erdogan, an Islamist, has a grand vision of becoming the voice of the Muslim World, and he has made no effort to conceal his ambitions.

Erdogan is a firm supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Egyptian extremist Islamist organization with a wide support base in the Muslim World. The Muslim Brotherhood is an anti-monarchy, pro-Sharia group. The Muslim Brotherhood came to power after its newly floated political party won the Egyptian elections in 2012, a development that rang loud alarm bells in the capitals of the monarchies in the Muslim World.

The anti-monarchy, pro-Sharia core ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood raised the hackles of the Saudi monarchy who felt threatened by the hardcore Islamist who was now the president of Egypt, a neighbouring country. Alarmed by the spectre of the spread of the Muslim Brotherhood’s ideology in Saudi Arabia, the Saudi Arabia royal house instigated the Egyptian army to oust the Muslim Brotherhood from power and take over the country. Thus, in July 2013, barely a few months after coming to power, the Islamist President of Egypt was ousted and jailed on charges of terrorism.

The Saudi Arabian involvement in the ousting of the democratically elected government in Egypt angered Erdogan, a die-hard supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood. The murder of Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city, came as a blessing to put the Saudis on the mat. He leaked evidence of the involvement of the Saudi Crown Prince in the Khashoggi murder case in a calibrated manner; in fact, the method was so effective that it has been called “death by a thousand leaks”.

Saudi Arabia botched its response to the Khashoggi murder saga; from firmly denying its involvement to calling it a rogue intelligence operation without concurrence of the royal house, the Saudi Arabian government came across as confused and unprepared for the massive backlash from the international community.

To begin with, the United States called on the Saudi Arabian royal house to come clean on its role in the Jamal Khashoggi murder. Since then, the U.S. has spoken in multiple tongues; this is because the Donald Trump White House stood by MbS, even while the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the U.S. premier external spy agency, pointed to the direct involvement of the Crown Prince in the murder of the journalist. It is well known that there is no love lost between Trump and the country’s numerous spy and security agencies.

So, why did the U.S. stand by Mohammed bin Salman? The most important reason for this is Washington’s Iran policy. The U.S. policy in West Asia is centred around Iran; Washington has been categorical in stating that it will do all to stop Iran’s “wave of regional destruction and global campaign of terror”.

An enemy’s enemy is a friend. This truism defines the relationship between the U.S. and the Sunni nations in West Asia. The Sunni Muslim nations, like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, deeply distrust Shia Iran, accusing it of fomenting terrorism in their nations. So, to counter Iran, the U.S. needs Saudi Arabia, the region’s most powerful nation and the fulcrum of the Sunni Muslim World. Saudi Arabia, under MbS, is at the forefront of the anti-Iran brigade; the Saudis see Iran as an existential threat. In fact, Saudi Arabia even backs Israel (Saudi Arabia and Israel do not have diplomatic relations, owing to the Palestinian issue) in the latter’s covert and overt operations against Iran, spread across the region, especially in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon.

What about the U.S.’ professed love for the protection of rights of freedom of expression, right to dissent, and religious freedom? Well, in international politics, respect for democracy, human rights, morality, ideology are matters of convenience; they can be expended at the altar of national interest.

 

Can Iran risk a war against the U.S.?

In this short note, I will focus on two important questions on the fluid situation in West Asia following the killing of Qosem Soleimani, arguably the second most powerful person in Iran and the head of its Quds Force, a special branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The global media is screaming from the roof-top about an impending World War III. Well, I have a contrarian viewpoint. Here it is.

Can Iran risk a full-fledged war?

No.

Iran cannot risk a full-scale war against the United States.

Its economy is tottering, especially in light of the economic sanctions imposed by the U.S.; here's a short note.

(a) Iran's GDP is likely to contract by 9.5 per cent, i.e., produce a tenth less than the previous year. 

(b) Sanctions, imposed by the U.S. for Iran’s pursuit of nuke weapons, have
dragged the budget revenue down, which has squeezed the money available for welfare schemes;

(c) oil production has fallen by nearly 90 per cent;

(d) exchange value of the currency (Rial) has dropped significantly (one American dollar gets you 1,40,000 rials at the current exchange value); and

(d) the country is rationing petrol at 60 litres per person at 15,000 rials per litre (anything above is sold at 30,000 rials).

It is true that Iran has developed a large arsenal of missiles and other weapons despite being under the burden of debilitating sanctions. Its missiles can reach Israel, an arch-foe. However, Iran may not enjoy a first-strike capability as Israel has the highly effective Iron Dome anti-missile interceptor.

Even if Iran does strike Israel with a missile first, it would have to bear the brunt of a sustained barrage of missile strikes from Israel.

Iran knows that it does not have the military capability to engage in direct confrontation with the U.S.; its conventional decades-old military machine is no match for the world’s most advanced weapons system of the U.S..

Also, almost all of the oil and gas plants of Iran are on its coast in the Gulf. In the event of a full-scale war, it is likely that the U.S. will seek to destroy these strategic assets, which are at the heart of the Iranian economy.

Once destroyed, there is precious little the Iranians can do fuel their war effort; no money will flow from the destroyed energy assets.

What is the most likely way for Iran to respond?

As Iran cannot risk a full-scale direct military confrontation against the U.S. and Israel, it will most likely resort to ‘asymmetric warfare’, an idea pioneered and built by Qosem Soleimani.

In the last two decades or so, Soleimani raised, nurtured, armed, funded and guided several Shia militia groups across Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. The most popular of these militias is the Lebanon-based Hezbollah.

It is most likely that Iran will attack the U.S. and Israel using these militias as proxies to advance its interests. Considering that most of the militias are disparate groups, it may become greatly difficult for the Americans and the Israelis to defeat them.

In the fast-developing scenario enveloping West Asia, Iran might scream itself hoarse, but it knows that its best bet to hurt its biggest enemies is by using asymmetric warfare through its proxies.

U.S.-China Trade War: A Lowdown

A short explainer on the trade war between the U.S. and China. 

U.S. trade in goods with China  

(latest info, as of November 2018, sourced from www.census.gov, a U.S. government website)

• Imports from China: U.S.$493.49 billion
• Exports to China: U.S.$111.16 billion
• Trade Balance: minus (–)U.S.$382 billion

Why

The U.S. accuses China of high tariffs (taxes) on American products, which make them expensive for the Chinese to buy.

Also, Washington has accused Beijing of doing nothing to prevent theft of intellectual property rights (like counterfeit goods and pirated software) and stealing of trade secrets (including through corporate espionage or by breaking into computer systems of American companies to gain access to cutting-edge technologies). The U.S. estimates the damages from China’s bad behaviour at around $600 billion.

Tariffs & Impact

To punish China for its bad behaviour and inaction, the U.S. imposed high tariffs on around Chinese goods (like handbags and heavy machinery) with $250 billion. Tariff increases ranged between 10% and 25%.

China hit back with $110 billion in tariffs on American goods.

The U.S. has postponed imposing another of tariffs on Chinese goods (worth $200 billion) as negotiations are underway to broker a better trade deal.

As of today, the Chinese have agreed to buy more American goods, especially agricultural products (like soybean). Farmers are among the major vote banks of Donald Trump. However, to push Trump to buckle down, China has imposed higher tariffs on goods (like coal and chemicals) made in Republican strongholds.

Beijing has also agreed to reduce tariffs on some American products to help those products gain wider market access.

Tariffs (taxes) on Chinese goods would make American products cheaper (comparatively) in the home market. This would induce Americans to buy more American goods (and not expensive Chinese goods).

China’s exports to the U.S. make for nearly 25% of its total exports. A drop in its exports to the U.S. could harm Beijing a lot more than it is willing to admit; of course, bragging aside, Beijing knows that a drop in exports to the U.S., especially amid a slowdown in its economic growth, could lead to industrial contraction, higher unemployment, and social unrest.

Status today

Both the U.S. and China have dug in their heels, though both countries cannot afford to do that for a long haul. Washington and Beijing are waiting for the other to blink, though both parties are staring at each other.

Venezuela Crisis in a Nutshell

In this short explainer on the crisis enveloping Venezuela, I have tried to be brief and to the point.

Nicolas Maduro                   Juan Guaido

Who’s Who in Venezuela

President: Nicolas Maduro, a hardcore socialist, anti-U.S., leader of United Socialist Party of Venezuela.   

Who supports Nicolas Maduro:

    (a) Within Venezuela: Supreme Court of Venezuela, Defence Forces of Venezuela, PDVSA (state-owned oil company); 

(b) Outside Venezuela: China, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua  (last three are in the Americas).

Who does Maduro blame for the current crisis: United States of America.

Challenger: Juan Guaido, self-declared Interim President since January 2019 and leader of Popular Will, a centrist party.

Who supports Juan Guaido:

(a) Within Venezuela: Low-ranking military officials and huge popular support.
(b) Outside Venezuela: U.S., UK, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Panama, Costa Rica, Guatemala, and Honduras.

Role of Oil in Venezuelan Economy

• Oil reserves in Venezuela are said to be among the top 3 in the world.
• Oil accounts for 98% of export earnings. 
• Oil accounts for 50% of GDP
• High global oil supply, falling crude prices, and poor extraction technology have led to a big decline in oil production – all of which have drastically reduced the government’s export earnings, thereby widening revenue deficit. 
•  In 2018, GDP shrunk by double digits for the third consecutive year. 
• Government does not have foreign exchange reserves to pay for imports and loans. 
  
• Venezuela has been in default since 2017 – meaning, it has not paid back foreign loans and not paid for imports. 
  
• U.S. and other countries have a long-running embargo against Venezuela; this has shrunk market for Venezuelan products and reduced avenues for borrowings.
  

Major Problems

• Great political and economic instability 
• Mostly, a result of catastrophic humanitarian emergency. 
• Severe shortage of food, medicine, & other essentials – mostly because of hoarding, embargo, and hyperinflation. 
• Hyperinflation, meaning very, very high rate of inflation, is leading to doubling of prices of essential goods every 19 days on average. Current inflation is around 85,000%. Thousands of health professionals have left the country, leading to medical emergency. 
• Lack of access to food and healthcare have pushed 90% of people below the poverty line.  
• On average, a Venezuelan has lost around 12 kg of body weight since 2017. 
• It is believed that some 3 million have already fled Venezuela; the number is likely to rise to 5 million by the end of 2019.
  

In a nutshell, years of economic mismanagement, misdirected welfare policies (subsidizing almost everything through high revenue earned by oil exports), huge debt, massive shortage of essential stuff, hyperinflation, political instability – have all led to the current catastrophic humanitarian crisis in Venezuela.

Datagraphic: India's Top 5 Export & Import Partners

Datagraphic: Top 7 Economies by GDP (Nominal)

India was ranked the sixth biggest economy by GDP in 2017; however, it is back to being the seventh  biggest economy. 

The Explainer: Erdogan, Khashoggi, Gulen, & MbS

The murder of Jamal Khashoggi has brought intense focus on Turkish leader Recep T. Erdogan's campaign against Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. I will explore a couple of major reasons behind the purpoted angst of the Turkish leader.

Who was Jamal Khashoggi? Jamal Khashoggi was a Saudi Arabian journalist and an insider in the Saudi royal court. He fled to the U.S after running afoul of

Jamal Khashoggi

the current royal administration in Saudi Arabia. A vociferous critic of the Saudi Arabian royal house, especially the Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, he was a columnist for the Washington Post newspaper and head of an Arab news channel.

On 2 October 2018, he visited the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul to collect documents pertaining to the dissolution of his marriage to a Saudi Arabian woman; the documents were necessary for him to get married to his Turkish fiancée. He was murdered inside the consulate by Saudi Arabian intelligence officials. Till date, no trace of his body has been found.

Read Who is Mohammad bin Salman?

The murder of Jamal Khashoggi has since thrown West Asia into turmoil. The Khashoggi saga has embroiled Saudi Arabia and Turkey in a war of words, with the U.S. squeezed between its two important allies. The following are the major players in the Khashoggi saga: Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United States, Iran, Qatar, and the Muslim Brotherhood.

Turkey directly implicated Saudi Arabia of carrying out the murder on its soil, even pointing a finger at the Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman for his involvement. Turkish President Recep T. Erdogan claimed the possession of

Recep T. Erdogan (Source: from Wikipedia)

unimpeachable evidence of the involvement of the Saudi Crown Prince, suggesting that the order for the murder “came from the highest authorities in the Saudi administration”.

Why did the Turkish President get so worked up about the murder of a Saudi dissident? The answer to this seemingly distasteful question lies in the ‘great power’ ambitions of the two countries.

We know that Saudi Arabia is the de facto leader of the Muslim World; however, Turkey, under Recep T. Erdogan, wants to become the centre of the Muslim World, just like the Ottoman empire was before its eventual collapse in 1922. Erdogan, an Islamist, has a grand vision of becoming the voice of the Muslim World, and he has made no effort to conceal his ambitions.

Erdogan is a firm supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Egyptian extremist organization with a wide support base in the Muslim World. The Muslim Brotherhood is an anti-monarchy, pro-Sharia group. The Muslim Brotherhood came to power in Egypt through its political party in 2012, a development that rang alarm bells in the capitals of the monarchies in the Muslim World.

The anti-monarchy, pro-Sharia core ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood raised the hackles of the Saudi monarchy who felt threatened by the hardcore Islamist who was now the president of Egypt, a neighbouring country. Alarmed by the spectre of the spread of the Muslim Brotherhood’s ideology in Saudi Arabia, the Saudi Arabia royal house instigated the Egyptian army to oust the Muslim Brotherhood from power and take over the country. Thus, in July 2013, barely a few months after coming to power, the Islamist President of Egypt was ousted and jailed on charges of terrorism.

The Saudi Arabian involvement in the ousting of the democratically elected government in Egypt angered Erdogan, a die-hard supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood. The murder of Jamal Khashoggi came in a blessing for him to put the Saudis on the mat. He leaked evidence of the involvement of the Saudi Crown Prince in the Khashoggi murder case in a calibrated manner; in fact, the method was so effective that it has been called “death by a thousand leaks”.

Saudi Arabia botched its response to the Khashoggi murder saga; from firmly denying its involvement to calling it a rogue intelligence operation without concurrence of the royal house, the Saudi Arabian government came across as confused and unprepared for the massive backlash from the international community.

There is another reason behind Turkey’s shrill campaign against Saudi 

Arabia: Fethullah Gulen. Gulen, a friend-turned-foe of Erdogan, lives in self-imposed exile in the United States. He runs a social and charity organization engaged mostly in education activities. His organization is widely popular across Turkey, with millions of members, with thousands of them in influential positions in the administration.

Erdogan accused Gulen of instigating the July 2016 military coup. Thousands of 

Fethullah Gulen

his followers were arrested while another 1.5 lakh were fired from their jobs in the administration, including in the military. Turkish jails are full of Gulen’s followers with allegations of vendetta flying thick.

Erdogan has demanded the extradition of Gulen from the U.S., a request Washington has repeatedly turned down, citing lack of credible evidence from the Turkish government.

It is believed that Erdogan is using the Jamal Khashoggi issue as a bargaining chip: Erdogan will stop badgering the Saudi Royal House (i.e., Crown Prince MbS) if the U.S. hands over Gulen to Turkey.

Why will the U.S. agree to this arrangement? A major reason could be the extraordinary pressure from Saudi Arabia on Donald Trump; Trump sees MbS as an important cog in the U.S. policy in the region.

If you have been following the Jamal Khashoggi saga, you would have noticed that the noise from Turkey against MbS has subsided considerably; maybe the Gulen factor is at play. We do not yet know.

Weekend Videos

• Five things ants can teach us about management (3m 11s, BBC Ideas)
• “A First-Class Catastrophe”: Lessons Learned from Black Monday (21m 14s, YouTube)
• The life story of Microsoft founder Paul Allen (1m 16s, Business Today)

Weekend Videos - Spies, Secrets of FB, & the Sun

Check out these videos to rev up your learning this weekend.

• Why our lives will keep revolving around the Sun (BBC Ideas, under 5 minutes)

• Inside Facebook: Secrets of the Social Network (Al Jazeera, under 47 minutes)

• How British spies made a cyber immune system (CNN, under 4 minutes)

The Explainer: The Kim Family of North Korea

With today's post I am back to blogging. I intend to keep writing on a regular basis. 

In the last couple of months, North Korea tested a nuclear bomb and launched a slew of missiles that has rattled global capitals. Alarm bells have gone off in Seoul, Tokyo, Washington, and Beijing. Some of the North Korean missiles flew above North Japan while a couple of them landed within 200 miles off the Japanese coast. North Korea has even threatened to attack Guam, an overseas military base of the United States in the Pacific Ocean. 

This short piece will focus on the Kim Family that rules North Korea like a family enterprise.

An Orwellian State 
A great deal of secrecy shrouds the political regime in North Korea; little or no information flows out of the country – this is perhaps the precise reason for Pyongyang’s actions being so scary. Before we explore the past and the present, let me share a short note on the Kim family that controls North Korea like a family fiefdom.

As is the case with Orwellian States, there is very little information available in the public space about the Kim family. This should be seen in the light of the fact that all information and propaganda flow in an Orwellian State, especially of the communist type, is tightly controlled by the rulers.

Kim Il–sung, officially titled ‘The Great Leader’, ruled North Korea since the Korean peninsula was split in half by the Korean War (1950–53), till his death in 1994. He laid the foundation of the dictatorship of the Kim family, shaped the communist polity within the country (especially the ‘Juche’ philosophy; ‘Juche’ means self-reliance) while his outlook on the world became the country’s foreign policy.

Upon his death in 1994, Kim Il–sung was succeeded by his chosen heir, Kim Jong–il, officially called ‘The Dear Leader’. The son consolidated the military apparatus through his ‘military first’ policy and accelerated the pace of the country’s chemical, biological and nuclear weapons and missile development programme. During his regime, millions of his countrymen died due to starvation even as he spent considerable resources on building a formidable nuclear weapons and missile arsenal. He died in 2011. Kim Il–sung and Kim Jong–il are together called ‘Eternal Leaders of the Juche Korea’.  

Kim Jong–il was succeeded by his son, Kim Jong–un. The world saw hope for a time – the fact that Kim Jong–un was educated in the west, exposed to the ideas of democracy and individual freedoms – could turn to be positively different, that he would give up his country’s antagonistic foreign policy (especially against South Korea, Japan and the U.S.), roll back the weapons programme, including the nuclear weapons programme, and usher in greater freedoms in his country.

As events turned out, all hope crashed after Kim Jong–un revved up the development of nukes and intercontinental ballistic missiles (which could reach the U.S. west coast). Kim has proved to be a hard nut to crack; even China, which traditionally has been the only major ally of Pyongyang, is unable to moderate Kim’s behaviour.    

Today, North Korea is widely seen as an international pariah, a view that contrasts sharply with the global perception of the democratic South as a technologically and economically advanced nation. 

The Explainer: List of disputes between U.S. & China

A seemingly innocuous phone call between the U.S. President-Elect Donald Trump and Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen ignited a war of words between China and Donald Trump.

In a series of short articles, I will focus on the historic and current status of the relationships between the U.S.-China, U.S.-Taiwan, and China-Taiwan.

The following are the major issues that characterize the uneasy relationship between the U.S. and China. 

(a) Tibet and the Dalai Lama;

(b) Taiwan, especially arms sales to the island nation;

(c) Xinjiang and Uighurs;

(d) China's claims over the South China Sea;

(e) Beijing’s abysmal human rights record, including denial of political freedom to political dissidents;

(f)  disagreement over climate change, especially on measures to tackle it;

(g) trade-related disputes like currency valuation;
(h) China’s behaviour in international forums, like in the UN on the Syria issue;

(i)  Chinese espionage, especially industrial and defence, and

(j)  cyber-attacks on American corporations;.

Of the above, there are two that cause China the greatest discomfort: Tibet and Taiwan. In the coming series of short posts, I will explain some of these disputes.

Cuba, The Castro Clan's Fiefdom

Fidel Castro is dead. The 90-year old communist dictator ruled Cuba like a personal fiefdom between 1959 and 2008 when ill-health forced him to hand over power to his brother, Raul Castro.

In 1959, Castro threw out the cruel and absolute despotism of the then ruling dispensation and took over Cuba. He turned the country into a socialist state and nationalised all industry and brought

almost all economic activities under state control.

On 3 May 2008, I wrote the following on an old blog site. Amidst all the hagiography of how great Fidel Castro was, here's a lowdown on his pursuit of a society free from nepotism and cronyism.

Politics is a cesspool in which opportunists wallow in a slime of corruption and nepotism. While this is old news in our part of the world, I found that this was pretty much the way of life even in the Communist Utopia of Cuba.

“During the past few years family members of both Fidel and Raul Castro have come to occupy important positions in Cuba's government. This Castro clan represents in addition to the military, the security apparatus and the Communist Party, a significant force in Cuba's political and economic structures.”

The list below is in the order of Name, Relationship, and Position held.

Fidel Castro Diaz-Balart
Fidel Castro's son
Advisor, Ministry of Basic Industry

Col. Alejandro Raul Castro Espin
Raul Castro's son
Chief, Intelligence Information Services, Ministry of the Interior; Coordinator, Intelligence Exchange with China

Ramon Castro Ruz
Fidel's and Raul's oldest brother
Advisor, Ministry of Sugar

Dr. Antonio Castro Soto
Fidel Castro's son
Investment Chief, Frank Pais Hospital. Doctor for Cuba's baseball team

Col. Luís Alberto Rodríguez López-Calleja
Raul Castro's son-in-law
Chief Executive Officer of Grupo GAESA (Grupo de Administración de Empresas, S.A.) which supervises military enterprises

Major Raul Alejandro Rodríguez Castro
Raul Castro's grandson
Raul Castro's military guard in charge of his personal security

Deborah Castro Espin
Raul Castro's daughter
Advisor, Ministry of Education

Mariela Castro Espin
Raul Castro's daughter
Head, Center for Sexual Education

Marcos Portal Leon
Married to Raul Castro's niece
In charge of nickel industry, member of the Central Committee of Cuba's Communist Party

Alfonsito Fraga
Related to Raul Castro
Ministry of Foreign Relations

I would not worry about this kind of naked nepotism but for the fact that the Commies always accuse their ideological opponents of succumbing to the follies of power politics.

The Commies with a capital ‘C’ are the same everywhere: opportunists, frauds, and blood-suckers. A life of sweat and toil is for the masses while perks and luxuries are for the Red Hued.

In the light of the above list, I can say that Fidel Castro was certainly NOT the Last Man Standing (with apologies to David Baldacci).

Long Live the Revolution! The Revolution to Deprive People of their Freedom and Happiness!

So much for equality.

My Thoughts on Barack Obama's Foreign Policy

I am not a fan of Barack Obama's foreign policy. 

When the announcement of awarding the Nobel Prize for Peace to Obama was made even before he took office of the President of the United States, I squirmed at the stupidity (I know it is a strong word) of the prize committee -- how can they give away the most prestigious prize just based on Obama’s poll promises of ushering a more peaceful world? Obama promised to close down the notorious Guantanamo Bay prison (Camp Delta; where America locks away dangerous terrorists/folks suspected of terrorism), bring back American soldiers from Afghanistan and Iraq, and focus on the Asia Pivot, including a constructive relationship with China (something like G2).

Now, let us look at his ‘achievements’.

The Guantanamo Bay prison is still operating; there are still thousands of American soldiers on the ground in Afghanistan and the country is in a bad shape with militant groups, like the Afghan Taliban, controlling large swathes of the country. The withdrawal of American soldiers from Iraq (though there is still a substantial presence in Baghdad) without putting in place a robust non-sectarian military and administrative system, has left the country singed by multiple fires (The emergence of the Islamic State is a case in point.)

China continues to be a belligerent on all fronts – economic, military and political. Gathered by stealth or espionage or indigenous development, its technological advancement, in business, space, and military, is there for all to see. It has cocked a snook at the U.S. and its allies in the Far East (Japan) and South East Asia (Indonesia). Even in the face of intense American pressure, China is building airstrips and military installations in the South China Sea; in fact, Beijing has threatened the U.S. and its allies of serious consequences if the latter meddled in its sovereign issues. (I will keep China’s tough and lop-sided economic relationship with the U.S. out of this note.)

Russia is cold and distant; Washington continues to treat Moscow as if it were still a Cold War threat. Of course, Moscow has not done anything extraordinary to earn the friendship of the world’s lone superpower. On the contrary, Moscow’s dubious role in Ukraine (including the annexation of Crimea) and Syria (siding with Bashar al-Assad) has riled the West (including the European Union). The U.S.-Russia game of one-upmanship is also playing out in Syria, mostly with disastrous results.

The Israel-Palestine relationship is fractious as ever. Obama’s perceived/real hostility toward Israel’s unilateral actions (like building of Jewish settlements in the West Bank) has earned him the wrath of the Israeli Establishment (cutting across the political spectrum). The Israelis have treated Obama with greater contempt than they have ever treated any American president.

The Arab Spring, a name synonymous with the popular movements against dictatorships in Muslim countries like Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain and Syria, lies in a shambles. Almost all of these popular movements were backed by the U.S. President Barack Obama. Let me give you a bird’s eye view of what’s the current status in these countries:

• Yemen – major sectarian conflict between Sunni and Shia Muslims; Saudi Arabia, a Sunni Wahabi nation, has, for the last several months, carried out air attacks against Houthi rebels (who practice Shia Islam and are supported by Iran, the biggest and powerful Shia Muslim nation).
• Libya –  various radical Islamist groups are vying for control of the country’s polity and abundant oil wealth.
• Bahrain – Sunni monarchy (Sunnis are in minority), backed by the Wahabi Ibn Saud ruling house of Saudi Arabia, is taking it out on the Shia majority (allegedly backed by Iran) who rebelled against the administration.
• Egypt – a popular movement dethroned the dictatorship of the pro-U.S. Hosni Mubarak; elections were held which brought a political wing of the ultra-radical Muslim Brotherhood to power; few months later the military grabbed power in a coup (of course, it legitimised power grab through a farcical election), ousted a popularly elected (radical) president, tried him in a military court and sentenced him to death.
• Syria – the regime of Bashar al-Assad, a Shia and backed by Iran and Iraq (along with Hezbollah, a Lebanon-based Shia militant group), is battling for its survival (with major help from Russia) against the ultra-extremist Islamic State and moderate rebel forces.

The hypocrisy of the U.S. and by extension its chief proponent of democracy, President Obama, is there for all to see: they have done precious little to restore democracy in Bahrain, Yemen, Libya and Egypt. Well, because it suits the American interests, they ran into Syria to fight against Bashar (who is hated by the wider Arab World for being a Shia). Under pressure from its allies like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the U.S. has spearheaded its oust-Bashar campaign even though it knows there is no leader/group to fill in the power vacuum in Syria. The last time the Americans did this -- in Iraq where they removed Saddam Hussein from power -- they left the country in tatters and bloodied.

As you can see, Barack Obama might preach the virtues of democracy and peace to the world but when it comes to practice, he falls way short.

The road to hell is paved with good intentions. Barack Obama knows that it is not enough to have good intentions; it is equally important to have the courage to make them true. Obama’s lack of gumption is myopic and he leaves a world which is more violent today than it was when he moved into the White House eight years back.

Please share your views in the comments space.

(I have deliberately left his relationships with the EU, India and personal equations with Prime Ministers Dr Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi out of this short piece; will write later, maybe.)

Sunday Reads

• The West's decline would hurt China. (Project Syndicate)
• Why you can't switch off at the weekend. (BBC Capital)
• India lifts veil on Army as Narendra Modi prepares to spend U.S.$150 billion (Bloomberg)

Sunday Reads

General Reads

• India's ISRO challenge Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos with record launch (Bloomberg)
• Why not Trexit? Texas Nationalists look to the Brexit vote for inspiration. (Guardian)

Tech Read

• What is banned on Facebook (CNN)

Funny Read

• Suddenly holy - A Pakistani celebrity's spiritual awakening (Dawn) 

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